摘要:

在回顾2014年国际原油市场主要发展历程的基础上,从两方面对2015年油价走势进行了发展态势展望和预测分析。研究认为:受全球经济形势复杂多变,复苏进程缓慢、脆弱而不均衡以及供需基本面因素的主要作用,在产量相对过剩情况下,2015年油价上半年依旧延续下跌趋势,国际原油价格还将在低位震荡,下半年或出现企稳反弹,全年油价波动幅度小于2014年。预计Brent原油均价为50~65美元/桶,WTI原油均价为45~60美元/桶。

Abstract:

This paper summarizes the oil price trajectory in 2014 and then explores the prospect and trend of oil price in 2015 from two perspectives. The results argue that the comprehensive effect caused by the fragile, unbalanced and complex recovery of the global economy, as well as the supply-and-demand fundamental drivers may urge oil price to continue falling on the basis of the 2014 level until perhaps the second half of the year, reaching an annual average of 50-65 USD/B for Brent crude oil and that of 45-60 USD/B for WTI.